COHO Analytics provides data-driven research tools. Analysis represents independent research using public datasets. Not financial or legal advice.
Analysis & Reports

Market Insights

Expert analysis on LIHTC markets, pricing trends, and investment opportunities.

Featured Analysis

Colorado Affordable Housing Market Deep Dive

Comprehensive analysis featuring interactive maps of DDAs & QCTs, AMI breakdowns, record-breaking concessions data, foreclosure trends, consumer confidence metrics, and detailed comparisons to national trends.

$169
Avg Concession/Month
7.6%
Denver Vacancy (16-yr high)
3.7%
Unemployment (4th lowest)
LOW
Foreclosure Risk
View Full Analysis →

Featured Insights

Regional Focus

Colorado Housing Costs: County-Level Analysis

Interactive county maps and data pipeline integrating ACS, FHFA HPI, BLS PPI/QCEW, and Census Building Permits. Includes 10-year and 15-year windowed rent change maps and a drivers-of-change regression model for all 64 Colorado counties.

Published: Mar 27, 2026 · 10 min read · Sources: Census Bureau, FHFA, BLS, Census BPS Read full analysis →
Legislative Analysis

Housing for the 21st Century Act: Complete Legislative Analysis

H.R. 6644 passes House 390-9 with sweeping bipartisan support. Comprehensive analysis of LIHTC provisions, FHA loan limit increases, NEPA streamlining, and HOME program improvements.

Published: Feb 13, 2026 · 15 min read · Sources: Congress.gov, HUD, CHFA Read full analysis →
Q1 2026 Report

Tax Credit Pricing Reaches Historic Lows

9% credit pricing drops to $0.84 in Q1 2026, marking the lowest level in three years as corporate tax appetite softens and credit supply increases.

Published: Feb 8, 2026 · 6 min read · Sources: Novogradac, HUD LIHTC Database Read full analysis →
Regional Focus

Colorado Market Analysis & Forecast

Deep dive into Colorado's $287M LIHTC market, including Denver metro trends, CHFA priorities, and econometric forecasts through 2028.

Published: Feb 10, 2026 · 8 min read · Sources: CHFA, Census Bureau, FRED Read full analysis →
Policy Analysis

CRA Expansion Impact: Pricing Forecasts

Predictive modeling of four scenarios if pending housing bills expand Community Reinvestment Act credit. Could lift pricing to $0.90–$1.10 range.

Published: Feb 13, 2026 · 12 min read · Sources: FFIEC, NCUA, Novogradac Read full analysis →
Legislative Deep Dive

LIHTC Enhancement & AHCIA: What the Proposed Reforms Mean for Developers

A detailed breakdown of the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act proposals — expanded credit authority, income-averaging flexibility, and basis boost changes — and how they could reshape project feasibility and equity pricing in 2026 and beyond.

Internal resource · Sources: Congress.gov, Novogradac, NCSHA Read full analysis →
Stakeholder Guide

LIHTC Basics

A practical guide for developers, housing authorities, and investors covering project development timelines, financing structures, QAP strategy, and due diligence frameworks.

Reference guide · Sources: HUD, IRS, NCSHA Read guide →

What's shaping the LIHTC landscape

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Rising Investor Demand

Corporate tax credit appetites have strengthened, with major banks and insurance companies increasing LIHTC allocations by 15–20% year-over-year.

Source: Novogradac investor surveys, Q4 2025
⚠

Construction Cost Pressures

While material costs have stabilized, labor shortages continue to impact timelines. Developers are adjusting underwriting assumptions and seeking additional gap financing.

Source: AGC Construction Cost Reports, BLS Producer Price Index
✦

QAP Evolution

State housing agencies are refining scoring criteria to prioritize climate resilience, transit access, and extremely low-income targeting.

Source: NCSHA QAP analysis, State HFA policy announcements
◆

Mixed-Income Models Gain Traction

Developers are increasingly combining 4% and 9% credits with market-rate units to create financially stable, economically integrated communities.

Source: HUD LIHTC Database project analysis

Market Data Snapshot

Credit Pricing Analysis

Current market rates and historical context

Credit TypeCurrent PriceQoQYoY
9% Competitive $0.87 +2.2% +5.6%
4% Non-Competitive $0.89 +1.1% +3.5%
State Credits (Avg) $0.86 +0.7% +2.4%
Source: Novogradac LIHTC Equity Pricing Trends, Q1 2026

Risk Indicators

Market health metrics

Foreclosure Rate 0.8%
Below historical average of 1.2%
Vacancy Rate 4.2%
Healthy occupancy levels
Investor Demand Index 142
Strong market conditions (baseline: 100)
Sources: HUD, Census Bureau, Novogradac Market Analysis

2026 Market Outlook

Expert projections and strategic considerations

Credit Pricing Forecast

9% credit pricing expected to stabilize in the $0.93–$0.96 range through 2026, supported by sustained investor appetite and controlled inflation.

  • Banks increasing CRA-driven investments
  • Insurance companies seeking stable yields
  • Corporate tax appetite remains strong
Source: Consensus forecast from industry analysts

Development Pipeline

Housing starts projected to increase 8–12% nationally, with particularly strong growth in Sun Belt and Mountain West markets.

  • Increased state QAP allocations
  • Basis boost driving feasibility
  • Public land initiatives expanding
Source: Census Bureau, NCSHA allocation data

Key Risks to Monitor

Primary concerns include labor market tightness, potential regulatory changes, and regional market variations in rental demand.

  • Construction labor availability
  • Interest rate volatility
  • Local zoning constraints
Source: AGC, Federal Reserve, State HFAs

Data Sources & Methodology

Disclaimer: All data and analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, legal guidance, or project underwriting recommendations. Consult with qualified advisors for project-specific guidance.